In week two, trends are developing...
The question of the week is - what to do with Daunte? I say, when in doubt, consult the schedule. If you’re not in a keeper league, the schedule should always be the first thing you reference for player valuation purposes.
He’s got New Orleans, Chicago, and Green Bay in 3 of the next 4. These are games Daunte should reestablish some value. Chicago has a good D, but still a game you can post points.
So that means Daunte is a hold. If you can get 2nd round value for him, meaning a RB 1 or RB2 (top15) or WR1 (top5), then by all means deal him, but he’s still a top 3-4 QB in terms of upside.
Daunte owners should look to upgrade at backup QB though. He should improve, but he won’t be the Daunte of old. So try and match it up, Daunte has Pittsburgh and Baltimore in week 15 and 16. So you definitely want another option at playoff time. This season in general looks like it will be advantageous to have two quality quarterbacks on the roster regardless of who your #1 is.
Other QB notes:
Carson Palmer owners should shop around and be open to deals. His value won’t be higher. Palmer is not Peyton Manning, and you see what Peyton Manning is doing. This league gives everyone some humility, Carson will get his dosage as well.
At RB:
Parker, Davis, Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones owners should all sell. Parker’s legit, but Bettis and Staley can’t sit around all season. By default he has to regress. Thomas Jones is Thomas Jones. Tiki will still lose TD’s to Brandon Jacobs, and the goal-line targets of Shockey and Burress. He’s still good, but he won’t be a #1 RB.
Cadillac – The road will get bumpier for the Cadillac. After the bye in week 7, he has names like Carolina twice, New England, and Washington. Tough defenses right when Williams could be starting to hit the wall. You can probably find a lateral move RB, like Clinton Portis, and get an upgrade somewhere else in the exchange.
I think Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson are going to hurt each other. I’d sell on those guys.
Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, Ahman Green rate as strong buys.
At Wide Receiver:
Larry Fitzgerald looks like he will be what Chris Carter used to do. Lots of catches, lots of TD. Maybe not eye-popping yardage, but a top WR option week in, week-out.
Darrell Jackson, Donald Driver, Plaxico Burress rate as buys. Jackson and Alexander make the Seattle offense go. Driver is a dependable WR, and the definite #1 in GB, a team that should have to pass a lot to remain competitive. He could be a top 10-15 WR the rest of the way, but no one will place that mmuch value on him in a trade. Plaxico will have down games, courtesy of his young QB. But he’s definitely a big part of the offense, and a nice end-zone target. He’s a solid #2.
Team Defenses don’t get enough attention and coverage.
Colts D is for real, primarily because of strength of schedule. Cincy has a decent schedule and are definitely an option. Giants I’d be a little worried about, they're good, but I think they will have less productive days (from a points perspective) . Keep an eye on the Chiefs. Ravens will come back also.
wordemup.
There was definitely no reason to draft Daunte early. agreed there.
ReplyDeletebut the real revelation is here is that QB is a position right now where there's little advantage to be had. The odds are on Palmer not throwing 30 TD's this year. Cleveland and Minny are not the best defensive litmus tests out there. By the end of the year, they'll be better. But both squads have undergone radical change. Upcoming Palmer still has Baltimore(2), Pittsburgh(2), Jacksonville. Chicago this week and Buffalo late in the season are notable as well. He won't average 300yds, and a couple TD against those teams.
Paying for a "special QB" aside from Manning (only cause his price may be low) is silly. Selling a "special" QB is smart. That's the mantra this season.
Holmes/Johnson is not a great backfield. unless the league is very deep. Johnson's 10 carries wil lnot match up with most people who have 20-25 carry guys. KC running attack isn't that great. Raiders already slowed them down a little.
Jackson is a classic value pick, because he lacks pizzazz. He's averaged over 1100 yards and 8 TD. He's only 26. And he's not a more central part of the passing game. And Bobby Engram and Jerramy Stevens are playing well enough to keep pressure off. He always drops it in the clutch, but clutch is not a category in my league. Volume is the name of the game with him, he'll be a consistent performer just by showing up.
Sometimes it is interesting to look back and see what people thought at the beginning of the season compared to how the season ended.
ReplyDeleteThank someone your a blogger and not a prognosticator - else you would be out of a job. At least, in the long list of things you got wrong you did have a couple accurate statements:
Cadillac hit the wall - hard. He never really regained his weeks 1-3 form.
Thomas Jones is Thomas Jones
Steven Jackson rates a strong buy (sorry about the other two)
Larry Fitzgerald will score week in/week out.
Alexander makes the Seattle offense go
eh. no one holds a job as a "prognosticator" because of their ability to really predict the future. If you take anyone's predicitons on a given week, you will have some hits and some misses. ultimately I didn't follow through throughout the season, that's the real test, as you respond to what's going on in the league week to week. anyone you read regularly is probably on the docket because they're willing to change their mind, and I didn't afford myself the opportunity to do that (in this forum). I'd still go toe to toe with anyone and feel confident I can hold my own (even if unjustifiably so) in terms of ff analysis and prediction.
ReplyDelete